276
FXUS62 KMFL 302244
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
644 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains possible for the
remainder of the week into the weekend. Inundated roadways
along coastal areas will be likely.
- High surf conditions expected for Palm Beach and Broward
beaches, starting Saturday afternoon.
- Chances for heavy rainfall return starting Saturday and being
maximized Sunday- Monday as a disturbance moves across the
area. Generalized 1-3 inches of rain with locally higher
amounts could lead to flooding.
- Increasing winds and seas across the local Atlantic waters
tonight will result in hazardous boating conditions through
the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 408 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Regional mid-lvl ridging will remain in place today, with pressure
gradients across the area gradually increasing into the weekend.
This will result in extended periods of gusty conditions along
coastal locations, mainly across the Atlantic coast of SoFlo.
Radar data through early this afternoon has shown very sparse
showers streaming westward across the area, mainly north of
interstate 75. A few late afternoon thunderstorms are possible,
especially with the peak of daytime heating, but coverage will
remain between isolated and scattered (20-40%). Saturday may see a
surge in moisture advection from the Atlantic, with max POPs into
the 60% range, mainly south of interstate 75. WPC latest outlook
places the Atlantic metro areas under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall (level 1 of 4) for potential of isolated/localized flooding
with the heaviest downpours.
The ongoing hazard, coastal flooding, is expected to continue at
least through Saturday across the Atlantic coastline. Please see the
BEACH forecast section below for specific details about the coastal
products in effect.
Afternoon max temperatures today should remain in the mid-upper 80s,
while overnight lows should drop into the low-mid 70s inland, and
mid-upper 70s elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
The aforementioned upper-level disturbance should move across the
Florida peninsula on Sunday, bringing the wettest period of the
forecast. Increasing large-scale ascent, cooler mid-level
temperatures and a deep moisture profile should support
widespread shower and thunderstorm development through much of the
day, with PoPs in the 80-90% range. Heavy rainfall and potential
flooding will be the main concerns, with WPC already placing the
East Coast metro areas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of
Flash flooding on Sunday and Monday. In fact, guidance shows the
highest convective coverage could be most likely along the East
Coast. However, this will ultimately be very dependent on the
timing, track and strength of the feature as it moves across the
area.
DESI 500mb heights ensemble cluster analysis still shows a primary
cluster with a weaker system that takes a more northerly track,
while the other three clusters favor some flavor of a deeper system
taking a more southerly track. The more northerly track would take
the higher rainfall totals north across northern-central FL, while
the more southerly tracks would keep the heavy rainfall
concentrated across central and south FL. Among the global
ensembles, the GEFS moves the system eastward faster, while the
ENS shows the disturbance, and thus its impacts, lingering into
Monday. As such, the ENS solution is also the wetter of the
possible options. As a result of these slight guidance
discrepancies, there is still somewhat low-to-medium confidence
regarding the forecast for Sunday and Monday, but we erred on the
side of the more southerly solutions and kept high PoPs gradually
tapering off from west to east on Monday night.
Confidence in the forecast declines further as we head into the
middle of next week. Mid-level ridging will look to build briefly
across the area, favoring a brief dry out across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday. However, later in the week the global
models try to develop the next upper level trough and surface low
over the Rockies. This complex would gradually move eastward and
potentially bring a cold front across the FL peninsula late in the
week. Considerable spread remains in the timing and strength of
this solution, and we will continue to monitor the evolution of
the forecast as we approach next week.
Temperatures will cool down a bit Sunday-Monday with the increased
storminess and cloud cover, with highs in the mid 80s. Lows will
slide into the mid 60s across the interior, and the low 70s along
the coasts.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Periods of lower decks around 5K may continue tonight with brief
vis/cigs restrictions accompanying passing showers. The lower
deck will spread across the area on Saturday with VCTS after 18Z.
E/NE winds around 10kt will becoming gusty around 25kt after 18Z,
and will likely remain breezy Saturday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Conditions will start to gradually deteriorate today as the pressure
gradient over Florida strengthens. As a result, winds across the
local Atlantic waters will increase up to 20-25 kts starting
tonight, while seas will build up to 7-10 ft along the Gulf Stream.
Small Craft Advisories will be in effect starting tonight and
through the weekend. Conditions across the Gulf will remain below
hazardous criteria, but will need to be monitored closely. These
impacts could last through the weekend as the stout pressure
gradient and breezy easterly northeasterly winds prevail. Isolated
showers and a rogue thunderstorm or two remain possible today.
Chances for more widespread rain and storms increase during the
weekend.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 408 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Coastal flooding remains likely along the Atlantic coastline during
the high tide cycles. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect
for the Atlantic coastline, and a High Surf Advisory will begin
Saturday afternoon for Palm Beach and Broward beaches.
A high risk of rip currents will also persist along the Atlantic
coastline through Sunday evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami 76 84 76 82 / 60 70 70 90
West Kendall 76 85 76 84 / 40 70 70 90
Opa-Locka 76 85 76 84 / 60 60 70 80
Homestead 76 86 76 84 / 40 60 70 90
Fort Lauderdale 76 83 75 82 / 60 60 80 90
N Ft Lauderdale 76 84 75 82 / 60 50 70 90
Pembroke Pines 75 85 75 84 / 60 60 70 90
West Palm Beach 75 84 75 82 / 40 30 60 80
Boca Raton 76 83 75 82 / 40 50 70 90
Naples 73 86 73 84 / 20 50 40 80
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ168-172-
173.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.
High Surf Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 7 PM EDT Sunday for
FLZ168-172.
High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ172-173.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-651-670-
671.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17
NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion